Spring practices are already in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it, which means you’ll have an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand what to expect this coming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football preview.
#37 – Michigan St. Spartans 5-6 SU; 4-7 ATS
Fargo’s Take Michigan St. once again got off to a strong start to the season last year, but faltered down the stretch and missed a bowl game for the second straight season. The Spartans have gone 1-3 in their last four games in each of the last five years and that includes the three seasons that head coach John L. Smith has been at the helm. That’s a problem and another ending like that could be the end of Smith. The Spartans’ offense was one of the best in the country last season, finishing 5th in total offense and 18th in scoring offense. The problem was with defense, as Michigan St. struggled to stop anyone late in the season. The Spartans have enough experience to win again and the end of the schedule works in their favor for once. They’ve won more than six games just once in the last six years, so it will be up to Smith to give this team some confidence in November.
Returning Starters On Offense – 7 Michigan St.’s potent offense has a chance to be even better this season as all the major cogs in the unit return. Led by quarterback Drew Stanton, the Spartans averaged 33.8 points per game, but it was that same offense that faltered down the stretch. They have scored 42 or more points in each of their first four games, but have managed that output just once in their last seven contests. Stanton has six of his top seven wide receivers back, but only two of his offensive linemen are back. The good news is that experience is being built up in those vacant spots, while depth is also very solid. The biggest surprise came from rookie running back Javon Ringer, who led the team with 817 yards despite a nagging knee injury. He’s back to health and could be ready for a big season.
Returning starters on defense – 6 The defense has gotten worse in each of the past three seasons, but that trend actually has a chance to reverse. There are some returning playmakers and all three units should show some buff. All three starters are back at linebacker, and while the defensive line must replace three starters from last season, all four forwards have solid depth. The secondary was a big responsibility last season, but it could actually become a strength if strong safety Nehemiah Warrick, a transfer from JUCO, lives up to the potential he showed in the spring. Two veteran cornerbacks are there as well, so the 85th air defense ranking is sure to improve. The defense was said to have had the best spring since Smith came to East Lansing and will have to carry that into the regular season.
Schedule The Spartans never have an easy schedule with Notre Dame always on the list and rival Michigan never absent. Michigan St. stunned Notre Dame last season and hosts the Irish at home this year. The other non-conference games are against Idaho and Eastern Michigan at home and a tough trip to Pittsburgh before hosting Notre Dame. The Big Ten schedule begins with a game against Illinois before taking on Michigan and Ohio St. in back-to-back weeks, the first on the road. Three of the last five games are away from home, but none of them are impossible and all of them have a chance to win. Road games are at Northwestern, Indiana and Penn St. and the game against the Nittany Lions is the biggest challenge.
You can bet on … Smith got a bye after last season, but another losing season won’t be tolerated and if it happens, he’ll be gone. It shouldn’t happen though, as a lot is going in the Spartans’ favor. The Big Ten is as tough as ever, but with Iowa and Wisconsin off the schedule, Michigan St. has a chance to be a sleeper in the conference. The Spartans are just 17-29-2 against the number since 2002, including a horrendous 4-11 ATS mark in non-conference action. They will test against the spread in their first two games against Idaho and Eastern Michigan and avoiding the Spartans in both could be the way to go as they are only 4-11 ATS when in double figures at home.
