Before you get too far into the breakdown you’re about to receive, the information in this article generally cuts across all major sporting events well. However, with the MLB season in full swing, there is no better time than the present to illustrate a point.
Common among experienced investors, but often overlooked by novices, is the fact that market influence plays a big, if not the biggest, role in creating lines. Today, the presence of the media is stronger than ever. With Glogs, Blogs, commentary broadcasts and more from professional newscasters and amateur sportswriters alike, there’s a wealth of information at your fingertips.
While knowledge of the game, insider information, and all the latest stats and trends are helpful when it comes to hurting your next sports investment, no one compares to understanding the market behind every investment possibility. In fact, if you only have time to dig into one area, are new and don’t know where to start, or have compiled all your data and need a tiebreaker, understanding media markets and the subsequent frenzy they produce is key to profiting from them. sports events.
As an example of this, we will take 2 MLB games, both from June 06, 2007. The first is Florida Marlins (+129) @ Atlanta Braves (-139). Game two is Chicago Cubs (+101) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-111). These lines were taken directly from Bodog and Sportsbook, 2 of the largest sportsbooks available online in the US.
Let’s start with the first game. The Marlins are considered a lower income team than the Braves, we all know that. Plus, average 9/10 fans will tell you the Braves are the perennial favorites on any given night. They often live off the fat of their 90’s dominance and continued strong play into this decade. However, in the last 10 years, the Marlins have won 2 world series compared to the Brave 0. But fan base and history aside, let’s focus on this year for a moment. At the time of writing this article, only a difference of 4 games separated the 2 teams. Looking down the line, though, the Braves are a clear favorite. Why is that? Is it because Florida has a better road record than Atlanta’s home record? Obviously not. Is it because Florida was on a longer winning streak at the time? Obviously not. Is it because Florida had the advantage in speed, power and overall starting pitching on the team? Obviously not.
The Marlins were the underdogs because of the media surrounding both teams. How many powerful stories do you read on Sportsline, ESPN or MLB about the Marlins? How many times do you read about the fact that despite the pedigree of the Amazing Braves, the Marlins have not only won 2 more championships in the last 10 years, but even as recently as last year, young team and all, were only 1 game? behind the Braves.
This is not a flash in the pan folks. The Marlins have consistently outplayed the Braves when and where it matters for 10 years. And from a gambler’s perspective, they’ve won more underdogs for investors than the Braves by landslide. Why is that? It has little to do with talent, veins, or pride. It has to do with the public perception created by the media.
Almost everyone with cable or satellite television can watch the Braves on television. It has been that way for almost 20 years. But the Marlins? Outside of a Florida market, they have little game. Media shapes these lines.
But let’s go one step further. You may be thinking that the lines are not ‘so’ different. Well, at some sportsbooks, the Braves were favored with a (-145) clip, and the biggest losing line for the Marlins was (+129). That’s a huge difference for a team that, in addition to all the reasons listed above, has also beaten the money line at a 12-8 pace over the Braves. Those 4 games may seem like just a narrow margin, but you’re talking about underdog lines of +225, +200, +119, +104 and more! Seeing as 2 of those lines are over 200, the profit generated by those 4 extra wins is huge.
So if the Marlins won 2 world series to the Braves 0 in the last 10 years, they were only 1 game behind the Braves last year, only 4 games behind this year with better starting body, speed and team power, and They were 12-8 against the Braves in 2006-2007 combined with nearly every win by an underdog, why the row so long? Because no one ever bets on the Marlins. They are a small market team. They are not on TV almost every day. They are not the sexy team that internet writers talk about. They don’t get a single weekend warrior bet outside of South Florida. The Braves are a media juggernaut, and as such, that information can be profitable.
Now, arming yourself with the above knowledge is only half of understanding the influence of the media on the betting markets. Let’s take a look at the other game described above, the Chicago Cubs vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
This game was not chosen by accident. The Cubs have the distinction of being the only other team in the media market also televised on cable almost every day. Any baseball fan under the age of 35 grew up watching the Cubs or the Braves on television. However, while the Braves benefit from the positive media image (and, as described above, an overly inflated media image), the Cubs receive the opposite effect.
How many of you have heard the Cubs referred to as the lovable losers? Just about anyone who is a superficial baseball fan or even knows someone who is a fan probably raised their hand. We all know it’s been forever since the Cubs won a World Series. We all laugh at his ineptness of injuries, managerial mistakes and even recently, the fistfights between fellow drummers. The bottom line is that the Cubs are available to us every day like MLB’s version of the Jerry Springer Show. We can see them imploding day after day, year after year. Or at least, that’s what the media shows us.
Fights happen in major league clubhouses often, but they rarely, if ever, make it to the media at smaller market teams. Last year, Detroit had a series of blunders in last year’s World Series, the biggest stage in baseball in the world, yet fewer Tigers jerseys are sold than Cubs, so the story gets buried. under the mud of the media.
In the Cubs vs. Brewers game, the best underdog line for the Cubs was (+105), where the lowest favorite line for the Brewers was (-120). Now, that may seem insignificant, but 60% of the bettor’s money ended up being placed on the Brewers. Even though the Cubs ranked higher in starting pitching, hitting, defense and bench prowess. In addition, the Cubs threw overboard their ace, Carlos Zambrano, who after the previous blows, had a lot to prove. For those who were lucky enough to see Zambrano play over the past 5 years, it is well known that he thrives on emotion. However, 60% of investors bet against him.
And the Cubs’ negative media isn’t the only part of this story. Check out the archives on your favorite sports website this season. Choose your option; it will be the same in everything. Compare the last 2 months and count how many pro-Brewers articles there have been compared to anti-Cubs articles. The Brewers are having a fantastic season and it’s a great story. But that is the point of this article. The stories that are written are the ones that shape the opinions of the reader. And when these opinions reach the sportsbook, the obvious happens, the lines change. Your weekend warrior will bet the Cubs lose. The investor ‘in the know’ about him will bet the Brewers will win. Both opinions formed by the media.
So how did the games turn out? Florida cashed on their underdog line, winning 7-4 and the Cubs cashed on their underdog line, winning 6-2.
So the next time you’re thinking of making an investment, take a look at the media markets surrounding your options. Which team is getting more media play? Which team gets the most exposure? Is that exposure justified? What is the public perception of that team? If you factor in media presence, you’ll improve your accuracy by more than 10% overall AND profit from more disadvantaged investments.
