When it comes to formulating your draft strategy, take some time to carefully consider your approach to defense. More than in any other position, defensive scoring can vary dramatically from league to league. Some leagues value a defender’s score more than forwards, while others group them together. This can drastically change your approach in terms of when to recruit the first defender on your list. For example, in the standard CBS league scoring, a goal from a defender is worth 5 points, compared to 3 from a striker. That puts a premium on a D-man who can score 10 or more goals in a season.
When it comes to ranking defenders, it’s important to approach it in tiers. There is usually a dramatic drop in production after the first 10 or 15 players. After that, you can find 30-40 types that will fall into the 30-45 point territory. So, unlike goalkeeping attention, there is relatively little difference between your defense at No. 20 and your player at No. 40. Just look at last year’s stats, for example. 13 players surpassed the 45-point mark. After that, there were 36 players who landed between 30 and 45 points. The real difference is at the top of the list, where Mike Green is only in one class. As Duncan Keith resisted, 17 points separated Green from third-placed Drew Doughty.
Another factor to consider is how predictable this position tends to be against offense and goal. While goalkeeping leaders tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year, top scorers on defense tend to be much more predictable. So if you spend an early pick on better-rated defenders, you have a much better chance that the pick will turn out well. Ask anyone who picked Tim Thomas or Nick Backstrom (G) in round 1 last year.
As a general rule, I try to acquire 2 of the top 10 defenders, even if I have to sacrifice in other areas. It is the safest bet there is. After that, fill yourself with forwards and goalkeepers and complete your defense with everything you can catch around round 8 and beyond. And if you get a shot at Mike Green, go for it. Even as high as the first overall. In terms of value, you can’t beat their numbers at that position. Period. Well, you know my number one is, so let’s take a look at the rest of the best options too:
TIER 1
1. Mike Green
True, his goal totals were very low last season, but he still scored 19 and led all Blueliners in points with 76. He should repeat or improve those totals in 2010-11. If there is one sure thing in fantasy hockey, his name is Mike Green.
2. Drew Doughty
If anyone has a chance to rival Green on points from behind, it will be Doughty. The king of smooth skating is entering his third season, and he’s already among the elite in his position. Feel free to wear it in the first round.
3. Shea Weber
Shea Weber has come in as a top-tier fantasy defender. Putting aside the 2007 season when he was injured, Weber has delivered a total of goals of 17, 23 and 16. His shot from the point is the hardest we’ve seen since Al Iafrate and Al MacInnis retired. 20 goals should come this season in Nashville.
4. Duncan Keith
Keith has finally earned the respect due to him after finishing second in defensive scoring, winning the Cup and claiming his first Norris Trophy. There’s no reason to expect big setbacks here, although it can be tough to get back to 69 points. He seemed a bit shy in the final after losing half his teeth, but he has the summer to overcome that fear. Bet on 60 points or more and be happy with him as your best defense.
5. Sergei Gonchar
When he’s healthy, there have been few better fantasy options than Gonchar over the past decade. He is a master at executing the power game and accumulates assists. His move from Pittsburgh to Ottawa may detract from his totals, but don’t let that scare you off. Remember, he put the best stats on a poor Capitals team before coming to the Pens. The only thing keeping Gonchar from being one of the top three defensive picks is health issues. I would still take my chances with him in Round 2.
TEIR 2
6. Dan Boyle
Boyle has surpassed 50 points in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and one of those years of rest was interrupted by a rare injury. The Sharks haven’t lost an iota of their firepower up front, so you can expect another solid offensive year from the veteran defender. You should see somewhere in the neighborhood of his usual 15 goals and 50+ points on the season, while he chews about 30 minutes a night.
7. Zdeno Chara
Chara’s goal totals plunged last season, along with everyone else in Boston. Still he finished the season with 44 points and a large number of penalty minutes, which has stopped the giant for the past decade. The Bruins will score more this season, and Chara should rebound to 15-goal territory.
8. Tyler Myers
Myers proved to be a defensive beast in his rookie year, racking up 11 goals and 48 points en route to winning the Calder Trophy. He did so by playing a relatively modest number of minutes for a number one defender. The Sabers will not hesitate to give him more ice time after losing Lydman and Tallinder this summer. Don’t be surprised to see 60 points to your name before the end of the year.
9. Mark Streit
Streit has been a fantasy stud since arriving on the island three seasons ago. However, their numbers have dropped a bit in the last two seasons. He remains an elite player and will continue to play about half of each game, as the islanders have few other options. New York’s youth are entering their prime and the goal count is set to rise this season, so expect Streit to approach 50 assists. Quality selection as your 1 D number.
10. Chris Pronger
At 36 years old, you would think that I should start to slow down; however, if he watched the playoffs last spring, there is still no sign of that. Pronger’s statistics are remarkably consistent from year to year and contributes across categories. So depending on your format and score, you can place it higher. Look for another 10-goal / 50-point bad boy year in Philadelphia.
