Will they rule the world?
My main interest in China in my childhood years was the Flying Tigers. (Visit: http://www.flyingtigersavg.com/tiger1.htm for information on the Flying Tigers on their official site.) Retired Air Force Captain Clair L. Chennault was invited to review air operations in China in 1937. She stayed there until the end of the war in 1945. Who invited him? Why Madame Chiang Kai-shek?
When Lt. Gen. Joseph W. Stilwell entered the defense of China, I became interested in Burmese operations that were attempting to cut supply lines from Japan to China. We all know that Stilwell was captured by the Japanese and that he was on the battleship Missouri when Japan surrendered in 1945. (Read about defending China at: http://www.army.mil/cmh-pg/brochures/72 – 38 / 72-38.htm.)
Aside from the Boxer Rebellion, I still know little about the history of China. (Well, I saw the movie starring Ava Gardner. “55 days in Peking” 1963 [http://www.avagardner.org/movientv.html])
The Boxers were really the “Society of Just Harmony.” They resented the foreigners’ demands and decided to expel them from North China in 1900. (Read about the rebellion at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion).
At the end of the war, my brother sailed for China in Tiensen, strapped a 45-millimeter pistol to his hip, and headed for the city. He still talks about it.
The Chinese have always been suspicious of the intentions of foreigners. I think that continues to be a factor in our relationship with them today.
Now that I have established that I am NOT an “Ol’ China Hand”, we can continue with what I am trying to say.
History of US-China relations
From: [http://www.with.psu.edu/articles/article.phtml?article_id=50&show_id=9]I have generated an outline of US-China relations.
1700s – Sino-US trade
1850s: Starvation in China, Gold Rush in the US Railroad Building
1880s: Economic depression in the US Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882.
1965: Chinese immigration restrictions are lifted.
[1945-1949:GuerracivilenChinaSeformalaRepúblicaPopularChina(ChinaRoja)EstadosUnidosreconoceaTaiwánperonoalaChinaRoja
1972: El presidente Richard Nixon visita China para reunirse con el presidente Mao Zedong y mejorar las relaciones. Resumen de relaciones diplomáticas. Más libertad para los ciudadanos chinos y las pequeñas empresas. (Creo que Nixon solo quería ver la Gran Muralla. No se puede ver desde Washington. Ni siquiera se puede ver desde la Luna Sin Nombre, a pesar de lo que dicen algunas personas).
Déficits comerciales
Hoy en día, cuando escuchamos sobre China, generalmente escuchamos sobre los enormes déficits comerciales que aumentan con el tiempo. Lo que esto significa para la mayoría de los estadounidenses es que lo que los japoneses y los árabes no han comprado en los EE. UU., lo comprarán los chinos.
Los déficits comerciales son actualmente y seguirán siendo altos con China. Para lo que este novato piensa que es una buena explicación de lo que esto significa, lea el artículo de Daniel T. Griswold en: http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/pas/tpa-002.html. Afirmó que muchos políticos no tienen idea de lo que están hablando con respecto a los déficits comerciales y que los déficits comerciales pueden ser beneficiosos.
Me mantendré al margen de ese argumento, libre comercio versus comercio restringido. Creo que el libre comercio llegó para quedarse y no será el único factor que haga que el tigre chino nos coma vivos. ¡Engullir, engullir!
Nuestros socios comerciales quieren una economía vibrante en los EE. UU. porque dependen de ella para respaldar sus economías. No lo pondrán en peligro en tiempos normales. Dije eso para aliviar temporalmente la tensión.
Roma y el Imperio Británico
Lo siguiente no tiene nada que ver con la discusión. Lo agregué para que se sepa que sospecho que se avecina un desastre, tal vez. Si pudiera tocar algo de música de “Twilight Zone”, lo haría en su lugar.
El profesor Gerhard Rempel, Western New England College, analiza la caída del imperio romano en: [http://mars.acnet.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/wc1/lectures/14romefell.html]. Internal and external forces and subsequent financial burdens weakened the empire until it could neither defend itself nor maintain stability.
If a nation is stretched outside its borders, as we are stretched, it will become thinner and weaker until its fault lines open up and it becomes vulnerable to attack (My words).
I added the last sentence to make things look scarier.
Anyway, we all know that the fall of the Roman Empire was due to drinking wine from lead vessels. My grandfather developed lead poisoning from working in mines with somewhat soluble lead ores. He said that he completely drained his strength and it took him years to recover. (Actually, I was an expert in this area dealing with the FDA and OSHA over the years, but I don’t want to brag about it.)
According to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Empire, “The British Empire was the world’s first global power, a product of the European Age of Exploration that began with the global maritime empires of Portugal and Spain in the late 15th century. By 1921, the British Empire dominated a population of about 470 to 570 million people, about a quarter of the world’s population, and covered about 15 million square miles (nearly 37 million square kilometers), nearly a third of the world’s total land. area.”
The British Empire liberated its colonies after World War II based on agreements made during the war. Australia, New Zealand and Canada decided to make more of their own decisions. Financially weakened by World War II, the British people and their government decided that the days of their imperialism were over.
Is our empire fading too? (I ask, “Why not?”)
Will there be Chinese aggression?
When I was in Korea, all our fighting (my unit) was with Chinese troops. These were young men sent to liberate North Korea. Hundreds of thousands crossed the Manchurian border and in an organized attack chased the UN forces (including my unit and some of my friends) to Pusan.
We captured some of these youngsters when I was there in 1951-1952. The ones I saw and spoke to were very tall, wore padded suits (which I later learned would stop a round from my carbine), and were glad to be out of the war. They surrendered after our airstrikes wounded some of them and they needed medical attention.
There are many young people in China who do not have wives or girlfriends out of a desire to ensure that the only child allowed is a boy. It may sound harsh, but war is a way to reduce that surplus male population. If an opportunity presents itself, could it happen again? Civil war in China would do the trick! Let’s not expect that.
taiwan
Taiwan is a pain in the side for Red China. At least that’s what they say. Before World War II, Hitler said that Czechoslovakia was a spear in Germany’s side. Look at the map! So, Hitler was the first.
Actually, the Chinese did not say that. I made it up so I could quote Hitler. I learned that the day I attended my brother’s history class at UCLA when I got back from Korea.
When the teacher said that about Czechoslovakia, I laughed. He slowly backed away from the blackboard and looked to see who had laughed.
My brother then explained that there was no culture at UCLA.
I returned to UCLA in 1966 to take a course in high-temperature thermodynamics. So I talked to the students and they told me that there was no culture there.
I went back again in 1974 and lo and behold, the culture had returned!
I guess I shouldn’t call the continent “red China” now that they are heavily capitalist.
It would seem that Taiwan and mainland China have resolved their differences over the growth of capitalism in the area, but they have not been resolved. A big dispute between the two could be disastrous for our country and the rest of the capitalist world. They need to kiss and make up.
We have pledged to protect Taiwan. Perhaps that policy should be reconsidered. After all, our old ally Chiang Kai-shek is long gone. But remember that our State Department likes to honor past commitments and probably won’t change its policy toward Taiwan.
I don’t think we’ll see the Chinese making a pilgrimage across the Bering Sea, but they have nasty missiles, air power, and nukes. The former Soviet Union always reinforced its borders and was ready to stop any Chinese aggression even though they were allies.
My advice here is: Always be nice to the Chinese!
By Henny Penny
Competition for resources could precipitate problems between China and the rest of the capitalist world. A major food shortage could drive the Chinese beyond their borders. The demand for the “good life” will likely lead to increased demand for oil and much higher oil prices, even in the near future. The need to reduce their population could result in wars of attrition. The Chinese population can be reduced by pandemics. It is so, so it will endure!
Let’s hope that the “Old China Hands” know what is going on in China and keep us out of the war with China and on good trade relations. Let’s hope China can successfully handle its problems.
How the Chinese could help us all
The Chinese are used to dealing with difficult problems involving large populations. They also have enormous military resources that could be used to reduce (not just escalate) tensions in the world. They appear to be natural businessmen and could help stabilize the world economy. I think it would be much better to form closer ties with China than to weaken them. What do you think now that you are an expert in the area?
copyright©2005 John T. Jones, Ph.D.
