The future is one of the most fascinating and discussed topics today. You can see the future being practiced daily as people plan events and develop business ventures on a global dimension. Understanding the future is no longer achieved by performing magic or reading someone’s palm, but is now recognized as a social science that can be identified as Strategic Foresight, Futures Studies, and Futuring (just to name a few), and is becomes fundamental in the development of new concepts and ideas in the fields of nanotechnology, neurotechnology, biotechnology and electronic technology for the future.
One of the tools derived from prospective or strategic planning is called Assumption-Based Planning (ABP). This tool can be used to help individuals and planners from all walks of life to recognize and incorporate assumptions into a plan in times of great uncertainty. James Dewar defines ABP as “a tool designed to improve the robustness and adaptability of plans, reducing the number of avoidable surprises in any plan or schedule”. You may be wondering right now how planning based on assumptions can fit into your future. The key is knowing how to recognize assumptions through creative thinking and include assumptions in your plans to avoid surprises that can destroy your plans. This article will demonstrate how planning based on assumptions can become a tool for circumventing the element of surprise and using creative thinking and planning in developing your own PBL.
Origin of the PAA
The Rand Corporation developed ABP in 1990 to assist the US Army in trend-based planning. James A. Dewar explains that PBL is a “post-planning” tool (recognizing that planning is an iterative process) that focuses on the assumption that there are possibilities in which a plan can fail; preparation for alternatives that affect an already developed plan. “Specifically, the ABP works to reduce the risks posed by the assumptions.” ABP originated as a five-step plan that defined ways a plan could fail. Dewar maps the assumptions below.
Step 1 – Load Assumptions and Vulnerability: The load assumption is like a load beam; pull it out and the roof caves in. Vulnerable assumption is one that could fail within the expected lifetime of the plan. Both cases can resort to an alternative plan.
Step 2 – On a broken assumption, the hedging action sets the planner up for failure.
Step 3 – Signals: Warning signals that can be used to monitor assumptions that are likely to produce surprises.
Step 4 – Shape Actions: Help assumptions play out to planners’ satisfaction.
Step 5 – Hedging Actions: Prepares the planner for the possibility of the assumption failing despite efforts to secure it.
Today’s world leaders must take into account the ever-changing global environment and incorporate assumptions into their forward-looking strategic planning. On a personal level, parents and children can learn to develop a PBL using the Dewar model, which can prepare them to create and incorporate assumptions in developing a forward-looking plan for their activities, events, and future. On a personal dimension, let’s visualize how a PBL can be applied to a family reunion event.
Forecasting a family plan using an ABP
Let’s take PBL to a personal level by using the imagination and creative skills of family members who will plan a family reunion. Imagine that your family is planning a family reunion one year from today. This is the plan; you incorporate assumptions into your subsequent plan to develop a plan that ‘can’ deliver to the satisfaction of the family. Here are the assumptions:
- Consider family members who need to ask employers for time off that employers can’t grant.
- Consider travel costs above a person’s budget.
- Consider the additional expenses each family will incur should an unexpected emergency occur and cancel your travel plans.
- Consider the donations needed from each family to cover reunion expenses and the family member who cannot provide. Will you pay his bill?
- Consider having some family members cancel at the last minute.
- Consider family members who do not financially contribute their share and need to be confronted.
- Consider whether the hotel accommodation meets the standards of family members.
- Consider if meeting plans don’t suit all age groups.
- Consider any health or food restrictions.
- Consider the local health professionals available in an emergency.
- Consider activities for children and adults.
I think you are looking at the image of an ABP. It is taking all the possible and probable causes and creating supposed behaviors and/or actions that could alter a strategic foresight plan. If you write the Dewar model and are a visual learner, the model can be turned into a visible table that can benefit both the planner and family members. By taking the location as part of the assumption process, the PBL helps identify the PBL “what ifs” of the meeting. Consider some of the assumptions in the following example:
- Vulnerable to charging: location allows for indoor and outdoor events
- Broken assumptions: location is vulnerable to inclement weather and power outages
- Sign-Post – Family read past customer reviews
- Shaping Actions: The family asks the location manager to guarantee the generator in the event of a power outage.
- Coverage Actions: The family makes a backup generator reserve in the event of a 24-hour cancellation allowance.
Conclution
People use PBL on a daily basis and don’t realize the creative skills involved in the guesswork process. From the personal spectrum to the corporate environment, the ABP is an adaptable tool that can benefit those who use the plan. Regardless of the structure of a leadership environment, whether top-down or flat initiatives, leaders, corporate executives, and everyday people can fit the PBL process into their daily schedule. Cornish wrote about the lessons learned from great explorers like Lewis and Clark, for example, in his book. She mentioned how these famous explorers used maps and ‘rumors’ about the territory to develop their expedition. There may have been a PBL prototype in their plans that allowed them to consider assumptions and work around failures to successfully complete their ventures. Whatever the case, they were able to succeed and accomplish the task before them.
Can a PBL tool work for you? Do you have the ability and imagination to insert what-if planning into your daily schedules, work plans, strategic plans? The Book of Jeremiah, chapter 29, verse 11 in the Old Testament says: “For I know the plans that ‘I have for you,’ declares the Lord, ‘plans for well-being and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope… “If we can be inspired that our plans can succeed, then tools like PBL can help us make our dreams come true. I like to compare ABP to an apple, you can count the seeds in an apple, but can you count the apples that will come out of the seeds when planted and produce fruit? Creativity and imagination will shape the future of successful planning instruments.
