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Draft Tips: Who will be the Arian Foster of 2011

Absolutely, Arian Foster is a legit top 3 pick. In 2010, he amassed enough points to be the highest scoring fantasy player in most scoring systems. Heck, he outscored the second best RB (Adrian Peterson) by over 80 points. That’s a big gap to close. The biggest factor is how consistent he was in 2010. He failed to reach 10 points in a game just twice all season.

Most have him at #1 and those who don’t look at Adrian Peterson because he has a longer track record and offers more stability. Coming out to the upside, Foster is clearly the better pick.

So who will Arian Foster be this year? That’s the million dollar question right?

In 2009, Foster only played in six games and finished as the 62nd-highest scoring RB, amassing 8.2 points per game down the stretch. If he had played the entire season at that rate, he would only have finished around 30th in RB. In 2010, he rocketed to become the number one scoring player in fantasy football.
Every fantasy owner is trying to figure out who will be the Arian Foster of 2011. The truth is, there almost certainly won’t be any. It’s unrealistic to think there will be anyone who can match the jump we saw Foster make last season.

To repeat that level of success, you’d need a RB like Ronnie Brown, Christopher Ivory, Brandon Jackson or Marshawn Lynch to suddenly burst atop the standings. I just don’t see that happening.

However, there are a number of corridors with exceptional potential. If he can land one of these guys later than expected and live up to his potential, he could walk away with exceptional value.
Here are some of the RBs we think have the best chance of convincingly beating their preliminary ranking.

Le Garrette Blount
2010 Finish: #23
2011 draft ranking: #15
Last season, Blount was a 1,000-yard rusher and accomplished the feat in just 13 games. Better yet, all but 30 of those yards came in just 11 games. If he extends those 11 contests to a full season, Blount moves up 8 spots in his 2010 finale. Keep an eye on Tampa’s roster, though. If they add another running back, he could affect it.

jahvid best
2010 Finish: #24
2011 draft ranking: #20
Best came out hot in 2009, putting up 65 points in the first two weeks. He only scored 65 more the rest of the way and couldn’t find the end zone again thanks to a nagging toe injury. With a return to health, we expect him to return to great playing form from him.

ryan matthew
2010 Finish: #33
2011 draft ranking: #18
Mathews is another rookie who was plagued by injury, missed much of his season and greatly disappointed everyone who caught up with him in last year’s draft. When he played, he showed great promise despite losing goal lines and carries to Mike Tolbert. Mathews finished 2010 strong by making his case for this year’s draft by putting up 120 yards and 3 TDs at Denver in the final week of the season.

brand ingram
2010 Finish: n/a
2011 draft ranking: #21
The Saints rookie is ready to play a big role in the running game. He will have to compete with Pierre Thomas and Christopher Ivory, but New Orleans is a complete team and there is room for several running backs to succeed there. Ingram is expected to see enough work to earn his draft spot.

Daniel Thomas
2010 Finish: n/a
2011 draft ranking: #25
Thomas has a huge advantage that is only tempered by the fact that he’s a rookie and you never know exactly what you’re going to get from first-year players. His location is ideal. Miami is a team that wants to run the ball, and with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams out, they’ll have their work cut out for them. Even the addition of Reggie Bush doesn’t affect his chances, because his roles will be completely different.

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